9 fantasy football studs that you should not draft early
At the risk of tipping my hand before my own fantasy draft, I bring to you 10 names that you might want to pickup in your fantasy league but you really should avoid taking in the first two rounds.
A lot of these names will go early but you don’t have to be the guy or gal to take ten years off your life hoping this all pans out.
One misfire on a risky name player in combination with the injury to a core guy that you are bound to get can deep six your season.
That said, I invite you to sign up and play in the Players View league.
Click here to join. If, we run out of space, click here to like us on FB, post in the fantasy football thread and we will add up to a total of five leagues with PV-provided gifts to the winners of each.
Maurice Jones Drew-Jacksonville Jaguars
He’s a physical monster who thus far has not been slowed by serious injuries. He’s the 2011 rushing champ that led the league with 1,606 rushing yards.
He should not be is your first round pick in your upcoming draft.
The bad blood that exists between MJD and the new administration in Jacksonville has apparently become very thick.
He skipped OTAS, mini-camp and training camp as he lobbied for a new deal. The team balked on their way to installing a new offense that he has yet to learn.
This weekend we go into round two of the preseason games and there is no MJD in sight at the Jaguars facility.
Also in the mix are a slew of new skill players that he has never played with.
All above the above renders a cocktail of issues that will need to be resolved before the back regains top form when he eventually breaks down and returns to the group.
If you want to risk it and draft him in hopes of saying I told you so later, be my guest but take a deep look in the mirror before you jump off the bridge.
Wait Until: As it stands now? Never. If he comes back before your draft begins, resist the urge to do anything crazy and wait until at least the fourth round.
The good news is that it could be a little while before this thing gets settled, so many will be able to draft and drop a lesser late round selection in the scramble to claim him off waivers.
Michael Vick- Philadelphia Eagles
MV7 won two titles for me in the 2010 run when I grabbed him off the waiver wire to handcuff the always injured Matt Schaub and the Tony Romo joyride respectively.
That relationship went a little cold last season as he sat out numerous games due to injury. When he is on he is on and this year will see him do great things for himself. But as we saw during his first preseason game last week when he hurt a digit on his throwing hand, he’s a pain magnet.
Wait Until:If the price is right in the fourth round, jump at him. But he won’t be available as somebody else will take him early and spend the year pulling out grey hairs every time he doesn’t slide or gets leveled in the pocket.
Peyton Manning –Denver Broncos
There are three things wrong with the idea of taking Manning in as your primary gunslinger. The first is that he has not been battle-tested since his return from a very serious injury.
After numerous surgeries that caused many to wonder if his situation was a career-ender, Manning is back but he hasn’t been hit with the kind of force that can prove to anybody that he will even play 16 games this year.
There’s also the little issue of his arm strength which has been well documented as being not at 100-percent.
On top of those two issues, the Broncos skill players are of the serviceable variety. There may a few big plays here and there and perhaps Manning will morph into a very efficient starter.
The thing is that there are no efficiency points in fantasy football.
Wait Until: You are ready to pick your bye week quarterback.
Kenny Britt- Tennessee Titans
Britt was putting up jaw-dropping numbers last year until he went down with a gruesome knee injury that he is still rehabbing.
He’s likely to get a one-to-three game suspension for his most recent off-field transgression when he was charged with DUI on a Kentucky Army base.
The formula of bad decision making (the arrest was his eighth) +knee injury should equal an end result that sees him drop way down most boards.
He’s worth going long for on a late pick if you want to keep him on your bench as you monitor how his situation pans out.
Don’t forget that he’s not the only big dog on the Titans roster anymore as rookie Kendall Wright from Baylor is looking very impressive.
If he gets off to a fast start, it may take some time for Britt to get back to setting off fireworks every time he steps on the grass.
Wait Until: Late…really late.
Andre Johnson –Houston Texans
Man, I feel foolish even typing his name in such a capacity, but the facts are what the facts are and we cannot sit back and pretend that Johnson has not been physically struggling for some time now.
He has returned to consistent practice attendance after working through a groin issue that he picked up during training camp.
The groin problem, the knee scope procedure that he had in May and last year’s various issues which included hamstring problems that kept him out of numerous games are definitely reasons to avoid taking him in the first round.
Wait Until: Johnson will probably have a strong run in 2012 but the “if” factor should be enough to scare you off taking him before round three.
Adrian Peterson-Minnesota Vikings
There are a lot of names on this list that you just did not think that you would see here. It points to the delicate nature of football and the idea of grabbing the right guys at the right time for your unit.
Too many times we draft guys early based on their body of work or what they did last year ignoring the current facts that are in front of us.
AP is “all day” and he will break a thousand yards this year if he returns at even 70-percent of what he has been up until his injury late last year.
Your fantasy team is your business and you can’t risk the foundation of your business on a wealth of memories albeit very recent ones.
If you got to jump on him think about him in the third and even then you better keep your fingers crossed that rookie offensive lineman Matt Kahlil is the truth.
If he was not a freak-of-nature that works extremely hard, I’d say a ACL suffered in December of last year is not worth playing with even as early as the third.
Wait Until: You might sweat a little bit but he could pay off large down the stretch of the last half of the season especially.
Jamaal Charles-Kansas City Chiefs
Injuries, injuries and more injuries seem to be the constant topic of conversation in this article. With Charles that is not the case even though he is coming back from a knee takedown.
He exited the season last year early so he’s had plenty of time to get his burst back and work on things such as cutting back into open gaps etc.
If the Chiefs stick to the plan that they have showed thus far, it looks like they will use bruiser Peyton Hillis for a lot more than just goal line action.
A cut in reps equals a cut in production and there will be a few regular season games on deck before we know exactly what KC is up to.
If quarterback Matt Cassel remains healthy, the Chiefs have the ability to air-it-out with two nice targets at wideout now that Dwayne Bowe has signed his contract tender.
Utility knife Dexter McCluster will rear his head as well, rendering Charles as a guy that will perform well but maybe not as much as you’d want him to.
Wait Until: Skipping him in the first two rounds is a calculated risk that could save you some headaches.
Wes Welker-New England Patriots
Welker and the franchise that made him famous could not come to an agreement on a long-term deal this offseason and Welker spoke about his displeasure with the situation before signing his franchise tender.
He could not have been thrilled to sit back and watch his big picture money take a back seat to their new phenomenon TE Rob Gronkowski who cashed in his mega-millions ticket before his rookie deal was due to expire.
Regardless of whether this is or is not Welker’s last run in New England, he will treat it like a contract year and try to erase the image of him dropping a key pass in the Super Bowl.
He has numerous stumbling blocks to having a breakout year.
The Pats went out and added deep threat Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney, Donte Stallworth and now RB/Olympian Jeff Demps to a mix that already includes Gronkowski and TEs Aaron Hernandez and Visanthe Shiancoe.
That is a lot of mouths to feed when it comes to touches and quarterback Tom Brady does not hesitate to spread the ball around.
Wait Until: Late second or better yet the third round.
Michael Turner-Atlanta Falcons
The Burner’s jets have been slowly sputtering out over the past season and a half. Since his high ankle sprain in 2010, Turner’s characteristic big play moments have become fewer and farther between.
The Falcons are running a new offense this year under a new OC that will delegate rushing duties to a committee of Turner, Jacquizz Rogers and Jason Snelling.
Turner is still the marquee name as he went double digit TDs and over 1,300 yards in 2011.
There is a funny thing about those numbers and that is there are seven really big games that helped take those over the roof.
The remaining regular season games that saw performances such as the 39 yards he notched against New Orleans or the 44 yards he turned in against the Texans are the ones that should are cause for concern.
Turner did not push big-time fantasy points without 20 carries or more with the exception of the season opener against the Bears.
What also hurts his fantasy value going forward is that he does not catch the ball out of the backfield well and it looks like the PPC RB de jour for Atlanta will be Rogers
Wait Until: The fourth round